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The Chicago Bears enter the 2022 NFL season with the intention of rebuilding what was an aging, expensive roster. The Bears fell apart in 2021, posting a 6-11 record despite a 7.5 win total line. Chicago cleaned out their coaching staff, and expectations for the 2022 season are low. Let’s examine the Bears’ current record prediction, their projected win totals, any intriguing prop bets involving the franchise, and their odds of winning the division, conference, and Super Bowl in 2023.
All odds are from Caesars sportsbook unless otherwise stated and are correct as of July 10 at 11 a.m. ET.
Chicago Bears record prediction 2022
Following the release of the NFL schedule, Caesars has provided odds and spreads for all of the Bears’ 2022 regular-season matchups. Based on those numbers, the Bears are projected as favorites in two games, underdogs in 14, and have a push. If the season matches those predictions, the Bears will finish with a 2-14-1 record following Week 18 of the 2022 season.
Counting wins and losses by oddsmakers’ lines is never that simple, though. While the majority of moneyline favorites do win throughout the season, the NFL would be quite boring if it were that predictable. The Bears’ 20-17 win over Cincinnati in Week 2 and 20-9 victory over Las Vegas are good examples of a bad team beating eventual playoff teams in 2021.
Oddsmakers may believe Chicago will have a tough time winning games, but they’re considered far from a bottom-feeder who will be blown out often. Of the Bears’ 17 games, 10 currently have a spread that is three points or less on either side. Considering how poorly many ranked the Bears’ offseason acquisitions and draft haul, it’s surprising Chicago is expected to be bad but still competitive.
The Bears’ 2022 schedule can be described as splotchy. They open against San Francisco and Green Bay but then face Houston and the New York Giants. After four games against fringe playoff hopefuls and one at Dallas, the Bears get some reprieve against Detroit, Atlanta, and the New York Jets. Ending the final month of the season against Philadelphia, Buffalo, at Detroit, and then hosting Minnesota is far from ideal.
Bears odds, picks, and props
Now we know the sportsbooks prediction for the Bears on a week-by-week basis, let’s take a look at their season-long odds for win totals, the division, the conference, and the Super Bowl.
- Bears win total: 6.5 (Over +105, Under -125)
- Bears lowest-scoring team: +600
- NFC North winner: +1200
- NFC winner: +6000
- Super Bowl winner: +12500
The best way to summarize the odds given to the Bears is they’re closer to the mix of teams vying for the No. 1 overall pick than a serious playoff contender. Oddsmakers have tried to incentivize bettors with the +105 return on the over 6.5 win mark. However, the -125 juiced line is a good indicator of the real expectations.
With the Bears favored in just two games and a push in another, the under offers a solid cushion compared to the game-by-game lines. Remember that Chicago has a new head coach in Matt Eberflus and has purged most proven veterans from the roster. Young players create optimism amongst the fan base, but the reality is the inconsistency of youth leads to tough losses. The NFC North is also a relatively good division. It’s possible the Bears fail to win a single game of the six against the Packers, Vikings, and Lions.
The Packers have won 39 games over the last three years. The Vikings opted for the opposite strategy as the Bears, giving their new coaching staff the opportunity to win with a veteran roster that has helped win 25 games over the last three years. Detroit is also rebuilding but is one year ahead of Chicago in its process of collecting and developing young talent.
Bears Rookie of the Year odds and player props
While Justin Fields is listed as the top MVP option for the Bears, his odds are impossibly long to win the league-wide award. Winning the MVP takes elite production, team success, and the right storyline for the player. Fields would need to elevate this deliberately rebuilding team to a playoff berth and boast stats that could rival Josh Allen or Patrick Mahomes.
It’s not a worthwhile investment to bet on any Bears player to earn a high-caliber award such as MVP and Offensive/Defensive Player of the Year. Instead, let’s take a look at the best odds for Bears player props for 2022:
- Most interceptions thrown
Justin Fields +1000
- David Montgomery regular-season rushing yards
Over/Under 900.5: -115
- Offensive Rookie of the Year
Velus Jones Jr. +6000
- Defensive Rookie of the Year
Kyler Gordon +3000
- Coach of the Year
Matt Eberflus +4000
The best values on the board for Chicago are connected to Fields and running back David Montgomery. Supposed to be the catalysts for the offense, neither has an especially impressive prop bet tied to them. There is some value in each.
Fields’ +1000 to lead the league in interceptions is behind Zach Wilson (+800) and tied with Trevor Lawrence and Davis Mills. I like Fields’ talent, but he’s leading one of the most talent-stricken offenses in the NFL and has a first-year offensive coordinator in Luke Getsy. Fields tossed just seven touchdowns but 10 interceptions in 12 games last year.
The trickle-down effect from Getsy’s wide-zone offense should help everyone from Fields to offensive linemen Larry Borom, Teven Jenkins, and Cody Whitehair, to Montgomery. Montgomery has eclipsed the 900-yard mark once in his three years thus far. The 25-year-old is entering a contract year.
Bears 2022 picks
- Bears under 6.5 wins: -125
- Montgomery over 900.5 yards: -115
There are several enticing Bears props we’ve listed above. The total is the most obvious play, and the under is the best pick. Chicago has a difficult pathway to reaching even six wins, let alone hitting the over.
If the season plays out as oddsmakers believe, the Bears could enter Week 10 with a 2-7 record and underdogs against Detroit. They would then need to rip off wins against the Lions and at the Falcons and Jets just to put themselves in a position to finish with seven wins. I don’t see that happening.
We’ll punt on Eberflus’ ability to win Coach of the Year with a relatively barren roster as well as the chances one of their rookies will be impactful enough statistically to prove to be a great longshot wager. Velus Jones may be a rotational third receiver, and Kyler Gordon lacked ball production in college, so it’s hard to see actual value there.
Fields’ interception prop is interesting but not tempting enough. I don’t think he leads the league in interceptions if Getsy implements the Green Bay offense he served as quarterbacks coach and passing game coordinator for the last two years.
If Getsy replicates Matt LaFleur’s strategy of the last three years in Green Bay, the Bears will finish around league-average in pass and rush attempts. The quality of the balance will be key for Fields’ development. LaFleur’s offense will get Fields on the move on rollouts for quicker reads and easier completions. Simply mitigating the responsibility of carrying last year’s offense will go a long way in protecting Fields from tallying an interception total we can expect from less accurate passers.
Fields is smart and athletic, even if his rookie season was horrible statistically. Having both Darnell Mooney and Cole Kmet in their third seasons should bring some positive continuity and incremental jumps from both. There’s just enough for Getsy to squeeze a promising season from Fields.
I do like the over on Montgomery’s 900.5-yard total. He was on pace to easily clear the 1,000-yard mark in 2021 but missed four games with a left knee strain. Betting on any back to stay healthy is a crapshoot. But Chicago has little incentive to platoon Montgomery with sixth-round rookie Trestan Ebner, Tennessee flameout Darrynton Evans, or 2021 sixth-rounder Khalil Herbert. Herbert is the most interesting player of that bunch but still not enough of a different skill set to take significant carries away from Montgomery.
What are the Bears odds to win the Super Bowl? ›
Chicago Bears odds to win the Super Bowl
After starting out the year at 3-4, the number has moved to +50000. Based on the lines, it's looking like a challenging season is underway for the Bears. Favorites to win the 2023 Super Bowl include the Buffalo Bills ( +290).
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In the history of the Super Bowl, the four best combinations have been 0-0 (19 times), 0-3 (11 times), 0-7 (11 times) and 7-0 (10 times).